[SMM Steel Market Morning News] China's GDP up 5.3% YoY

★Macro★

01 ★★★ [China's GDP grows 5.3% YoY]

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In H1, China's GDP grew 5.3% YoY; industrial added value of enterprises above designated size rose 6.4% YoY; national fixed asset investment increased 2.8% YoY; total retail sales of consumer goods grew 5.0% YoY.

02 ★★ [Central Urban Work Conference held in Beijing on July 14-15]

The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing on July 14-15. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, attended the meeting and delivered an important speech. The meeting pointed out that China's urbanization is transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a stage of stable development, with urban development shifting from large-scale incremental expansion to a phase focused on improving quality and efficiency of existing resources.

★Industries & Downstream Sectors★

01 ★★★NBS: Newly built commercial housing prices in first-tier cities down 0.3% MoM in June

NBS data shows that in June 2025, commercial residential housing prices across all tier cities declined MoM, with overall YoY declines continuing to narrow. In first-tier cities, newly built commercial residential housing prices fell 0.3% MoM, 0.1 percentage points wider than the previous month. Specifically, Shanghai prices rose 0.4%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw decreases of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively. Second and third-tier cities recorded MoM declines of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, unchanged from May. For existing homes, first-tier cities saw a 0.7% MoM price decline, same as May, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen down 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively. Second and third-tier existing home prices both fell 0.6% MoM, 0.1 percentage points wider than previous month.

02 ★★★ [NBS: National real estate development investment down 11.2% YoY in H1]

NBS data shows that from January to June, national real estate development investment reached 4,665.8 billion yuan, down 11.2% YoY, with residential investment at 3,577 billion yuan, down 10.4%. During the same period, newly built commercial housing sales area totaled 458.51 million m², down 3.5% YoY, with residential sales area declining 3.7%.

03 ★★★ [NBS: Q2 automotive manufacturing capacity utilization rate at 71.3%]

NBS data shows that in Q2 2025, national industrial capacity utilization rate of enterprises above designated size was 74.0%, down 0.1 percentage points QoQ and 0.9 percentage points YoY. By sector: coal mining/washing (69.3%), food manufacturing (69.1%), textile industry (77.8%), chemical raw materials/chemical products manufacturing (71.9%), non-metallic mineral products (62.3%), ferrous metal smelting/rolling processing (80.8%), non-ferrous metal smelting/rolling processing (77.7%), general equipment manufacturing (78.3%), special equipment manufacturing (76.5%), automotive manufacturing (71.3%), electrical machinery/equipment manufacturing (73.5%), and computer/communication/other electronic equipment manufacturing (77.3%).

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕Clarkson: Chinese shipbuilders maintain global leadership in H1, securing 370 vessels (26.3 million DWT, 10.03 million CGT) as of 2025, accounting for ~51% of global orders by CGT, though down significantly from 70% share in 2024.

⭕AVC: Online retail sales of color TVs grew 11.6% YoY in June; refrigerators down 7.7% YoY; washing machines up 15.3% YoY; air conditioners up 20.8% YoY.

⭕Last week (July 7-13), total newly built commercial housing transaction area across 10 key cities reached 1.1737 million m², down 40.5% MoM and 24.2% YoY.
⭕ National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Starting from 24:00 on July 15, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 130 yuan/mt and 125 yuan/mt respectively.

⭕ According to the CISA website, on July 14, four steel enterprises made public announcements on the progress of ultra-low emission transformation and assessment monitoring. As of now, 193 steel enterprises have made public announcements on the CISA website. SAIC and Geely ranked second and third respectively, with sales of 365,300 units and 236,000 units.